Could the mainstream media be missing some factors that proved to be effective in 2016 and to some extent since then? Could they be minimizing the role Russians played in the 2016 election along with lately ignoring the findings of the Mueller Report? Could they be minimizing the shenanigans of voter suppression, or the flaws of the voting process? That is exactly what happened in 2016 and could be happening again. The Democrats thought they had it won for sure in 2016, but it turned out quite the opposite.
Mary Trump’s book should bring us all back to who Donald Trump is and therefore what he will do about the coming Election. Contrary to what some commentators have expressed in the media, I must disagree that the key to this election is an expansion of his base.
Yes, he will continue to play to his base to convince them that he is in charge and is an “everyman” who pulled himself up by his own bootstraps; that he is one of them who will fight for their interests. But he will not be putting any great energy into expanding his base in order to win. He needs that base to continue to receive a cult-like loyalty to him (without which he cannot function) and to support his efforts to undermine democratic values so that he can further establish an authoritarian government dependent upon and responsible to him, and him alone. He will keep about 40-43% as a base, and then have to look elsewhere. And that is why his Ukraine-gate happened – he was looking elsewhere for help to win, and that is what he will do for 2020.
In my opinion, he will do what he has always done: he will cheat and lie to win a battle that he considers to be a war. As his niece, Mary Trump, indicated: he practices bullying and cheats "as a way of life." For Donald, in Mary's telling, "lying was primarily a mode of self-aggrandizement meant to convince other people he was better than he actually was.“ It’s what sociopaths do: “they co-opt others and use them toward their own ends — ruthlessly and efficiently, with no tolerance for dissent or resistance."
Here is what I believe he will be concentrating on over the next 115+ days that are left before the Election:
1. FOREIGN INTERFERENCE. He has already invited foreign powers to intervene in our national election: Russia, by not doing anything to punish or restrict their hackers and saboteurs; China, by more direct invitation, and perhaps other nations led by his "bosom buddies." And where does the Ukraine stand? Rudy Giuliani didn’t stay in the Ukraine just for fun – he was looking for dirt on the Biden's, but what else might he have been doing?
NBC claimed in 2019 that “Trump and his close allies have suggested that foreign intervention in domestic politics is a normal course of business.” "There’s nothing wrong with taking information from Russians," Rudy Giuliani, Trump's personal lawyer, said on CNN in April 2019.
Trump has demonstrated that “normality” more than once as he attempted interference with military aid to Ukraine; supported Boris Johnson in England for Prime Minister and expressed his opposition to Prime Minister May’s proposal for Brexit; he also strongly supported movement of the capital of Israel to Jerusalem. Just a few examples of his on-going attitude that interference in other governments is normal and acceptable.
It should not be surprising, then, that he has invited other nations to interfere here since, if he can undo the norm that U.S. presidents do not interfere with other nation’s conduct of governance, he can make such interference a norm of behavior here; as he has done. Hacking has already been detected on the part of Iran and China (see my Blog of 8/28 /2019 to get an idea of the covert activity happening between the 2016 election and August 1, 2019).
After all, cheating to win against perceived foes is one of his character traits pointed out by Mary Trump and several other biographers like David Cay Johnston. We must not allow foreign countries to interfere with our elections. Sanctions, dismissal of some diplomats, counter-attack on their computer systems, and gathering a coalition of nations to make life miserable for any country that dares to attack our cyberspace, constitute a few possible reactions. But none of this will happen while Trump is president and the Senate is controlled by the Trumpian Republican Party. Nonetheless, CONGRESS needs to hear from you on foreign interference.
2. COVID 19 as a tool. One way to lower the vote in a covert way and to keep some voters away from the polls entirely is to use the coronavirus crisis to gain an advantage:
⦁ Cast doubt on the science about the virus; the truth from Dr. Fauci, the CDC and its guidelines, and the credibility of Democratic Governors
⦁ Ignore the effects of the virus and lessen the work of the Task Force to combat it
⦁ Put the economy out front as most important to re-open – saving business over saving lives
⦁ Ignore health guidelines and make them appear to be tools of an over-zealous and dictatorial-like government (mostly State and local)
⦁ Open the schools to increase the effect of the virus on children who can then pass it to their voter parents and relatives
I believe that Trump now sees this virus as a possible ally which is why he walked away from those White House briefings -- because no matter what happens with the numbers (and his “brand”), he knows that he can discount some votes against him as it spreads to all age and ethnic groups. Its devastation is growing and for Trump that means that some opposition voter strength is diminishing.
Now, of course Trump can't pitch it this way; it would brand him as one who subjugates persons to votes, and tempt some to call him at least 'uncaring,' if not a "killer." But the Donald has already demonstrated that basic flaw of lacking empathy and sympathy. He has already made it plain that the "numbers" of new cases and deaths need to be "softened" or de-emphasized. Why is it such a stretch to move to seeing numbers of cases and deaths as restricting some potential Biden votes, especially since he cannot have missed the finding that Afro-Americans and Hispanic/Latino Americans have passed away at more rapid rates than whites?
3. VOTER SUPPRESSION. Ignoring this specious tool has already cost Democrats some vital elections, including Hillary Clinton for President and Stacey Abrams for Governor of Georgia (where 1.5 million people were removed from voter rolls over a period of 2012-2016).
Suppression is done by:
⦁ passing complicated ID laws on state and local levels, rejecting reform measures and passing laws that allow voter rolls to be “purged” of people who haven’t voted for an arbitrary time or some other equally arbitrary reason; getting rid of more and more elections offices or having them open at inconvenient hours; reducing the number of polling places and making voters wait for hours in long lines, etc.
⦁ making sure that universal voting-by-mail never sees the light of day; reducing voter ability to obtain absentee ballots; processing mail-in ballots so that some get “lost”
⦁ Machines – keeping and using outdated machines with outdated software so that machines break down or function poorly/sporadically; frustrating voters enough to have them leave without casting a ballot; and, having machines that do not have a paper ballot back-up for recounts. “ It seems likely that voters in five states will vote in November exclusively on electronic ballot machines that don't provide a paper trail. Congress allocated $380 million earlier this year for states to bolster their election security, but many experts believe it is not nearly enough money.”
“The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine listed replacing electronic voting machines with paper-based systems by 2020 as its first recommendation in a report on the future of voting the organization released last month.” (https://www.npr.org/2018/09/17/647420970/npr-marist-poll-1-in-3-americans-think-foreign-country-will-change-midterm-votes)
⦁ Make registration to vote as cumbersome as possible, especially for minorities and those living with poverty
⦁ Draw districts that give advantage to one Party or the other; or districts that clump certain voter groups and thus restrict the number of districts they might influence by their votes
"The most egregious example of race-based gerrymandering detailed...pertains to a controversial voting line running through the center of the historically black North Carolina A&T State University, splitting the college’s minority population into two separate voting districts. The district line running through North Carolina A&T State divided the minority voting population with such precision that it “all but guarantees” both districts will remain under Republican representation for the foreseeable future." (Lawandcrime.com)
⦁ Take the vote away from felons and other incarcerated persons.
Americanprogress.com comments as follows: “Each election cycle, untold numbers of eligible Americans are prevented from voting due to barriers in the voter registration process, restrictions on casting ballots, and discriminatory and partisan-rigged district maps. Voter suppression measures can differ by state and even by individual county. And while some voter suppression measures actively seek to discriminate against certain groups, others result from innocent administrative errors and glitches. Regardless of its form or intent, however, voter suppression is relentlessly effective in preventing voting-eligible Americans from contributing to the electoral process.” (Check out this link for details and suggested reforms: https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy)
4. PUBLIC NOTICES/PUBLICITY. Make public notices as confusing as possible.
⦁ Even consider sending some that give false or misleading information/messages to voters
⦁ Use social media to publish memes favoring Trump and painting all Democrats as socialists, obstructionists, do-nothing legislators, and corrupt politicians
⦁ Use local paper Opinion pages to print conspiracy theories, made-up stories and provocative news about candidates and their plans and policies
5. TARGET the DISTRICTS that will win the most votes in a state for Trump just as done in 2016
⦁ There are about 30 districts that made the difference in the Electoral College vote – they must be won again if Trump is to pull off an upset
⦁ Get 3rd party PAC money to those districts to bombard them with Trump ads and finger-pointing ads aimed at Biden (already happening!)
⦁ Recruit more Volunteers who can help to activate and motivate Trump voters
6. CULTURE WARS - continue the heavy barrage of attacks on Democrats and protesters; tie them together
⦁ as revolutionaries
⦁ destructive of business and property
⦁ baby killers
⦁ anarchists
7. Never mind plans and policy – tell people what you need and want them to hear; not necessarily the truth about reality. Trump speaks in a language that produces desired reactions in his followers and in some who stand apart from political parties. It is not worthwhile for him to discuss plans and policies, not only because he doesn’t have any of worth, but because his followers are not attuned to anything more than the cultural biases, myths and beliefs with which they were nurtured.
If Trump talks about people who wrong him, they applaud because they also want to take such people down in their lives.
If he fumes about fake news and hoaxes and personal prejudice and persecution against him, his followers applaud because they too feel personally diminished by others in their life sphere.
If he rants about the press, the media, the protesters, the swamp of Washington DC or the “deep state," they applaud because they know in their set of biases that government and protesters are not to be trusted
As we conclude this post today, the question before us has probably been affected somewhat by the 7/9/2020 Supreme Court decision indicating clearly (7-2) that there is no such thing as absolute immunity for the president or any other person in our form of governance. No one is above the law, and no president can claim absolute immunity from turning over documents requested by a grand jury.
TRUMP has already tweeted that this decision is a hoax and that it constitutes “personal prosecutorial harassment.” But, it also preserves and reinforces the independence and balance required within our constitutional democracy. This historic SCOTUS decision and vote must be considered a factor in Trump’s campaign for a second term. He may use it as another example of government problems and power; or, indeed, he could use it to help him in making an exit and refusing to run again. We can only hope...
Should he maintain his present decision to run again (and I believe he will), let us be clear about what he will be doing: HE WILL BE TRYING TO WIN BY REDUCING THE POSSIBLE VOTES FOR JOE BIDEN! He will spend little time or money running on his record or his plans or expanding his base (although he will do all to some degree). He will spend most of his efforts on winning by undermining Joe Biden and his family and putting into practice overt and covert operations that will reduce the vote available to Joe Biden.
And so, we have to say to Democrats – do not make the mistakes made so often by Democrats unaware of the power of negative campaign practices.
⦁ Joe Biden’s strongest message is about family, unity, empathy, working together, taking care of one another. The value of respect and dignity cannot be undersold.
⦁ Keeping policy plans brief and simple is the only way to escape the mistake of over-zealousness on matters of public policy. The juxta-positioning of policy and issues up against Trump practices may be a way to emphasize their importance without over-selling programs.
⦁ Keep referring to detailed plans and give people the location (and the link) on the Internet, but don’t give them in detail in a public speech unless the venue or the occasion calls for such..
⦁ Get busy in those districts that made such a difference in 2016; plus, research several ways to get to 270 electoral votes and make sure we have at least thee paths to get there
To be clear: do not forget what Donald Trump is doing: reducing the vote going to Joe Biden. Therefore, the crux of this election is not the current polls showing Trump down by double digits. Counting on That is the primrose path to destruction as it was in 2016.
If Democrats fail to counter the negative tactics: the foreign interference, the attempts to stop voting by mail, the improper placement and processing associated with polling places, fraudulent ballot receiving and ballot counting;
If Democrats fail in the fixing and upgrading of voting machines and expanded examination of them just before Election Day (or early voting period), vetting or checking poll watchers and poll overseers, making provision for many polls (or conveniently centered large voting arenas);
[It might not hurt for progressive groups to get an ACLU member or civil rights lawyer to accompany them to local council meetings, to Boards of Election Commissioners, not just to assess and criticize, but to offer help by recruiting volunteers for them if they have that need because of short staff].
If Democrats and progressives do not PAY ATTENTION to the negative campaign tricks from Trump and counter them, we could see another surprise of devastating consequences in November. We still need the ground game (texting, phoning, canvassing, etc.), but this election is also about containing and countering the Trumpian lying and cheating that will be non-stop this year.
STAY POSITIVE BUT DON”T FORGET to fight attempts by Trump and his minions to steal this election.
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ADDENDUM
Five more Examples of abusive Trump words and/or behaviors before November 2016 that we should have noticed much more than we did: [Thanks to article in HuffPost, June 16, 2016]
⦁ July 18, 2015 - Trump didn’t serve in the Vietnam War, thanks to a series of deferments. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) did — and spent five excruciating years in captivity, frequently enduring torture, after the North Vietnamese shot down his plane. So what does Trump say about the senator’s service during an appearance in Iowa? “He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”
⦁ Aug. 7, 2015 - For many Americans, this was the first exposure to Trump’s predilection for…making denigrating comments about women. The day after a Fox News debate in which co-moderator Megyn Kelly asked Trump about misogynist things he had said in the past, the candidate called in to CNN and offered a theory on why Kelly was putting forward such tough questions: “You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes. Blood coming out of her — wherever.”
⦁ Sept. 9, 2015 - Trump has a long history of judging women by their appearances and mocking those who don’t live up to his standards. While sitting for an interview with Rolling Stone and watching video of a previous Republican presidential debate, Trump turned his attention to ⦁ Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO and rival for the GOP nomination: “Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?
Sept. 9, 2015 - Probably no moment of the campaign has been as singularly creepy as Trump, in that same Rolling Stone interview, talking about his daughter Ivanka: “Yeah, she’s really something, and what a beauty, that one. If I weren’t happily married and, ya know, her father...”
⦁ Dec. 7, 2015 - Trump emailed a statement to the press, then read it aloud (referring to himself in the third person) during a campaign appearance in South Carolina. “Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on,” it read.
⦁ June 3, 2016 - The personal attacks. The contempt for political norms. The denigration of immigrants. It’s all there in Trump’s commentary on U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel, who presided over lawsuits against Trump University.Curiel was born in Indiana; previously, as a prosecutor, he risked his life while pursuing Mexican drug cartels. But Curiel’s parents immigrated from Mexico and that, Trump stated, means the judge cannot rule in the Trump University lawsuits fairly.Trump: "I've been treated very unfairly by this judge. Now, this judge is of Mexican heritage. I'm building a wall, OK? I'm building a wall
Trump: "Well, he's a member of a society, where -- you know, very pro-Mexico, and that's fine."
Trump: "We are building a wall. He's a Mexican. We're building a wall between here and Mexico. The answer is, he is giving us very unfair rulings, rulings that people can't even believe." (original CNN transcript)
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) called Trump’s criticism of Curiel “the textbook definition of a racist comment.” Newt Gingrich, former speaker and Republican presidential candidate, said it was “one of the worst mistakes Trump has made.”
