As much as I think we’d like to forget it, there is
always something staring us in the face. Mostly, it’s called ‘the future.’
For some, it’s more ominous, like “Armageddon” or “the Second
Coming.” For others, it may be known as the
“New Millennium’ or the ‘New Age’ or perhaps in a narrower defining phrase as
the ‘New Technological Revolution.”
Whatever one may call it, it has to do with having to face something
that is coming. And, as with many
moments in our development and history, it is presenting signs and symbols in
the present which some folks decide consciously, or unconsciously, to ignore or
to postpone in terms of attention to them.
Although we hate to admit it, we humans have some strange
ways we approach things like the future.
Some embrace it and hope for its speedy arrival. Some fear its changes and disruptions of the
life they have come to know, and they dread it.
Some ignore it and prefer to live more day-to-day without thinking much
about the next era, the next generation, the next decade, the next year, or
even the next week. For some, that form
of escape is the way they choose to protect themselves from difficult
thoughts and issues. For others, concern
about the future is a luxury because they have all they can do just to get
through the current day. Then there are,
of course, those who simply minimize the future because they too prefer not to
deal with its issues and the changes it represents because they would rather
rail and rant about the present. They
choose to act as though the future has nothing to say about how one should
transform the present by using new tools and skills that are contained within
that future. Some choose to plan for the
future, and even to invest in it, hoping they can ride a future wave to an
unexpected shore where they will increase their stature, their position, their
fortune, and maybe even their happiness, although that is not always the
outcome.
Although people react differently, most humans probably
do harbor some hope for the future. We
are resilient, we are positive, we do see some of the possibilities in new
inventions (like the wheel, the auto, the airplane; and now: drones, space travel
and robots).
Even as we speak, there are some of our species planning
to use driverless transports (Uber), drones (Amazon); to take private space
ships to distant planets to start new civilizations. We Americans are somewhat ebullient in our
determination to improve, to invent, to make life better, not just for
ourselves but for others as well.
Americans have been on a quest since our beginnings as a nation to make
government more responsive to the needs, hopes and desires of all for a better
life. We continue to seek better ways to
make the promises of opportunity, protection, safety, a good education,
justice, liberty and happiness available equally under the law for all our
citizens and residents. We often welcome
changes that go to the heart of who we are as a nation and a people. We are, after all, not just resilient; we are
endowed with certain values and attitudes that tend to lead us to build upon societal
foundations rather than to destroy them.
So, what is our status as we face a future that is
already showing signs of its presence.
Are we even aware of its impending doom?
Are we aware of how we can use it to our advantage as we help bend the
arc of history toward greater justice, distribution of wealth and personal
development? Are we cognizant of dangers
we face if the new technology is allowed to operate without some controls? Do we understand our Mission and Purposes as
a nation in contributing to global peace so that all humanity can benefit from
what is coming?
I’m sorry to say that we are not well prepared; we are
not ready to face a future fourth technological revolution, or a critical
global warming that could destroy us all.
We are not prepared because current far Right-wing occupiers of seats in
the Congress, the White House and the Supreme Court (and lesser courts), as
well as in state Governorships and legislatures are not doing near enough to
move us in that direction. There is an
inordinate amount of attention currently being given to concepts and policies
that will not add one iota of strength or progress toward human rights, human
life or human dignity.
The pretend president, Donald Trump, and his Far-Right
minions are so devoid of a Vision for the Future that we have to say that, like
clowns, they are performing a farcical skit that only plays to the foolish,
like: the immigration debacle;
healthcare reform failure; public education being undermined rather than
enhanced; the threat of growing unemployment being fueled by technologies ignored because unemployment
figures are currently low. The Tax Cut bill gave huge permanent cuts to the
richest 1% and temporary cuts to the middle class that will be erased by higher
health care costs and rescinded deductions for state taxes, charitable
contributions and mortgage payments; leaving middle-income taxpayers with
little or no gain.
And, as if to bear
witness to the chaos, we see a denial of science and scientific method that can help determine policies based on facts rather than on opinions or hyperbole. Such behavior has given us denial of
global warming and an environmental crisis brought on by human neglect and
irresponsible human behavior. The recent
federal government report (Volume
II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, required by 1980’s
legislation) spells out very clearly the critical situation that looms before
us and which could destroy us if we don’t act immediately to counter its
effects. (Check it out at: http://www.globalchange.gov/about)
Although the scientists who presented it
denied that anything in the findings had been altered by the WH, the negative
attitude of the Trump Administration was vividly illustrated by the fact that
the report was issued in the mid-afternoon of Black Friday! In a Tweet on Saturday, Trump further
illustrated his particular (misinformed) attitude, blurting
forth: "Brutal and Extended Cold Blast could shatter ALL RECORDS -
Whatever happened to Global Warming?"
Trump, administration officials and elected Republicans frequently say
they can't tell how much of climate change is caused by humans and how much is
natural. Trump himself again blurted out to a reporter that he “doesn’t believe
it” (the report). Meanwhile, the public
is being denied the protection of government action based on research and
factual detail. What is their Vision for
the future of our planet? Your guess is
as good as mine.
Equally apropos is the very negative attitude of ignoring
the future technological revolution that will change almost every aspect of our
existence. This administration has no Vision, no Plan, no Intention of dealing
with anything other than their undermining of democratic values and government
of, by and for the People. They are
constructing a national government that will serve as a tool for the spread of
their Right-wing ideology, for the aggrandizement of wealth and business, the
imposition of unequal Law & Order, the power of a strong military along
with a national police force. Control is
their Vision and the use of Power (and Chaos) is their Plan.
Perhaps a bit of
information about this looming revolution would be useful. Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman
of the World Economic Forum, wrote the following in an article titled: “The
Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond”:
“We stand on the
brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we
live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the
transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do
not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to
it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the
global polity, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil
society.
The First
Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. The
Second used electric power to create mass production. The Third used
electronics and information technology to automate production. Now a Fourth
Industrial Revolution is building on the Third, the digital revolution that has
been occurring since the middle of the last century. It is characterized by a
fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical,
digital, and biological spheres.
There are three
reasons why today’s transformations represent not merely a prolongation of the
Third Industrial Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct
one: velocity, scope, and systems impact. The speed of current breakthroughs
has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial
revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear
pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And
the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire
systems of production, management, and governance… these possibilities will
be multiplied by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial
intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D
printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and
quantum computing.”
Schwab raises some concerns:
1. As
automation substitutes for labor across the entire economy, the net
displacement of workers by machines might exacerbate the gap between capital
and labor.
2. Rise
of a job market increasingly segregated into “low-skill/low-pay” and
“high-skill/high-pay” segments, which in turn will lead to an increase in
social tensions.
3. Demand
for highly skilled workers has increased while the demand for workers with less
education and lower skills has decreased. The result is a job market with a
strong demand at the high and low ends, but a hollowing out of the middle.
4. Helps
explain why middle classes around the world are increasingly experiencing a
pervasive sense of dissatisfaction and unfairness. A winner-takes-all economy
that offers only limited access to the middle class is a recipe for democratic
malaise and dereliction.
5. Many
industries are seeing the introduction of new technologies that can oust
well-established incumbents faster than ever by improving the quality, speed,
or price at which value is delivered (need we name all the retail giants that
are closing stores all over this country while Amazon expands?)
6. There are four main effects that the Fourth
Industrial Revolution has on business—on customer expectations, product
enhancement, collaborative innovation, and organizational forms. Whether
consumers or businesses, customers are increasingly at the epicenter of the
economy, which is all about improving how customers are served
7.
As
new technologies such as autonomous or biological weapons become easier to use,
individuals and small groups will increasingly join states in being capable of
causing mass harm. This new vulnerability will lead to new fears. But at the
same time, advances in technology will create the potential to reduce the scale
or impact of violence, through the development of new modes of protection, for
example, or greater precision in targeting.
8. The
Fourth Industrial Revolution will change not only what we do but also who we
are. It will affect our identity and all the issues associated with it: our
sense of privacy, our notions of ownership, our consumption patterns, the time
we devote to work and leisure, and how we develop our careers, cultivate our
skills, meet people, and nurture relationships. It is already changing our
healthcare insurance.
9. One
of the greatest individual challenges posed by new information technologies is
privacy. The impact on our inner lives by the loss of control over our data
will only intensify in the years ahead.
10. The revolutions occurring in biotechnology and
Artificial Intelligence (AI), are redefining what it means to be human by
pushing back the current thresholds of life span, health, cognition, and
capabilities, compelling us to redefine our moral and ethical boundaries.
“We should thus grasp the opportunity and power we have
to shape the Fourth Industrial Revolution and direct it toward a future that
reflects our common objectives and values.
To do this, however, we must develop a comprehensive and globally shared
view of how technology is affecting our lives and reshaping our economic,
social, cultural, and human environments. There has never been a time of
greater promise, or one of greater potential peril. Today’s decision-makers,
however, are too often trapped in traditional, linear thinking, or too absorbed
by the multiple crises demanding their attention, to think strategically about
the forces of disruption and innovation shaping our future.” (emphasis is
mine)
He concludes with what I would characterize as a clarion
call to us all (and I intend for it to apply particularly to the newly elected Democrat majority in the
House): “In the end, it all comes down to people and values. We need to shape a
future that works for all of us by putting people first and empowering them.”
(Schwab)
In conclusion, let me also raise some questions:
1. What
is the Far-Right’s Vision of health care in a technological world where
Nanotechnology and robotics rule, and our hospitals don’t have the most
up-to-date technology or enough thoroughly trained bio-tech engineers and
personnel to maintain what they do have?
2. What
about infrastructure repair – how can we use modern technology and AI to
improve our bridges (and their maintenance) as well as all our buildings,
including schools; what must be done so those buildings can withstand
ever-increasing cataclysmic weather events?
3. Where
are the Government Task Forces or Commissions that should be studying and
reporting on what universities, public and private laboratories and
corporations are doing to advance daily life through the targeted use of new
technologies? Is all the attention on
the future going to be spent on business and economics or are we will we also
envision what we can do to incorporate the new technology into our governmental
service systems?
4. What
will happen if we base our current economy on new jobs while many of those jobs
are disappearing and will become extinct within a relatively short span of time
because the new robotic technology is going to wreak havoc on jobs that can be
done by robots or robotic mechanisms?
Witness driverless taxis, trucks and autos. Witness the building of more human-like
robots that will start to replace humans in numerous interactive situations.
Witness the construction of robots that will be able to develop and learn new
concepts on their own.
5. How will government need to re-invent itself
to be able to respond to the break-neck speed of these new developments? For
instance, now that Donald Trump’s unrealistic promise to bring manufacturing
jobs back to the nation has been somewhat shattered, how will his
administration deal with the devastating news that five GM plants will be
closing very soon along with 6 models of GM autos biting the dust, and GM jobs
going to other countries?
6. In 2020, will the perverse prevaricator,
Donald Trump, base his campaign on negative politicizing of future developments
in economics, industry, business, jobs, and the environment so that his base
and enough other non-thinkers will begin to harbor such great fears of the
future they will vote for him to protect their jobs and their livelihoods from
the scary unknowns of the new revolution?
Yes indeed, he will do exactly that. (read more about it at:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/opinion/trump-industrial-revolutions.html)
7. What about privacy? Is that universal alert system Trump and his
minions developed about one-way messaging, or are we being targeted for
‘monitoring’ by this wannabe dictatorial regime?
The new cohort of progressive Democrats must deal with
the concerns and issues about our future immediately upon taking office. We don’t have the luxury of waiting to see
what the future brings. The future is here,
and it is already impacting lives. We must
get on top of the issues now or suffer the lies of Donald Trump inducing more
fear into the hearts and minds of his followers and others about the
future. He will appear to be the hero,
fighting the future’s fearful changes so that the weak will be comforted and
the non-critical thinkers will be satisfied.
Trump can win another 4-year term if House Democrats fail to show the
People how the 4th Industrial Revolution can be constructed and
utilized to benefit our lives.
There must be a Vision of the Future and an extraordinary
Plan for addressing this fourth technological revolution. But first, we must address issues that have
been blocked and undermined by this and other ultra-conservative GOP
administrations. We must start putting
the advantages and the tools of the technological future to work on health
care, the environment, immigration, infrastructure repair, racial and economic
divides, regulation of the financial sector, plus income disparities and
electoral reform so that the positives of revolutionary change can begin to
work for us right now! In other words,
Democrats, we need a Plan; we need priorities made clear; we need leadership
that has the Vision necessary for shaping the present in light of the future
and shaping the future according to our democratic values and our promotion of
inalienable human rights.
We have had such visionary Plans before; we are not
unused to thinking boldly when circumstances demand it. We know about the long-range vision and plan
for the Women’s Vote; the Civil Rights Movement; the Plan of Protests to end
the Vietnam War. We know what it takes
to clean-up issues that have moldered and smoldered over decades. We know how to gather and to mobilize
resources in the quest of extraordinary future Visions and Goals. Remember, if you will, the Plans for
rebuilding our country (and others) after the great World Wars; recall the
Marshall Plan or FDR’s New Deal. How
could we forget the Plan to put a Man on the Moon before the decade was out; or
the Plan to find a cure(s) for cancer?
A final thought:
it might behoove the new Democratic majority in the House to put
everything into the context of what the future holds, and what positives it can
bring, as well as revealing the goals and actions we must pursue to meet and to
harness what the future revolution portends.
We need to demonstrate over and over the negative attributes and
outcomes that the Trump administration has been foisting upon us. Let us show the deep contrast between
Trumpism and what our Vision of government is in terms of every issue
and every action that is needed. Above
all, we should not make ‘oversight’ the only purpose for committee hearings –
that is too easily construed as ‘revenge’ and ‘foul play’ that Trump can
characterize to portray himself as ‘victim.’
On the contrary, let us show the positive changes we can
produce by bringing together experts in the private and public sectors to study
and to demonstrate the
progressive outcomes that the new technologies can bring to our lives right now
by starting experimental and demonstration programs and creating new policies
to illustrate what can happen. Whatever
oversight hearings are necessary, let us put them in the context of a Vision
for the future of government and services; the same is true for renewable
energy and other actions necessary for saving and improving our
environment. We are under an immediate
imperative to save our planet from human toxic gases and other pollutants. Democrats have everything to gain by putting
their upcoming work and legislation into the broader perspective of a Vision
and a Plan. Let steps we take now begin
to construct and fulfill our Vision and Plan for the future while they also
enhance our present circumstances.
I leave you with
some words and phrases – in no particular order -- that might inform such a
Visionary Plan:
and 
